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Testing Simulating Continued 01-09-2012

01-09-2012 Trade

For statistical purposes I was taken out +1. However I do have my own computer now running with the chart and sim as well.My fill was 12314 (Bill's was 12315)

I have had Bill change his settings so he gets filled at Bar Close Price (he was getting filled at +1)

When ID passed above 90 I had Bill bring up his stop (as did I) to BE+1 - Bill was taken out +1 and I was still in. Price hit 12316 on the pullback before popping to the MurreyMath. I was taken out at 12324 (the MurreyMath) for 10ticks when I followed price up with my stop.

For statistical purposes we will say today's trade took +1 as this was the trade in the trading room.

Testing Simulating Continued 01-06-2012

Though I wasn't live in the room today I will post the First Valid signal.

January 6,2012 Trade:

As I noted yesterday in the first countertrend that took me into a reversal and double stop out in bottom trend consolidation EOTTA and Gvalu were both strong. This was the case again this AM, the difference - GVALU stopped plotting within 2 bars of the entry signal today confirming the potential reversal. This alone may be a money management tool I can utilize on these 1st countertrend trades. I will have to continue to make note throughout Sim Testing.

Testing Simulating Continued 01-05-2012

Today was a great learning day for my auto-strategy entry trigger.

Not only do I need to implement not getting in if TA is above 95 on a counter trend trade, I also need to add a filter so I am not reversed into the end of a trend.

My rules currently state that if I am entered at the end of a trend with EOTID low (and TA high) - I exit immediately and for record purposes this is -2ticks. Today I was a little flustered during testing because I wasn't expecting to be reversed in to this from my trade so I did not implement this rule and ended with -10 ticks on the second trade after losing 28 ticks on the first before reversal.

In a full discretion setup I would not have jumped in with EOTTA so high (will have to see how I can filter this) as I prefer to see some breakage in this indicator confirming that the trend could be done. I would also not have jumped in short unless Hi-Jacking and with a Hi-Jack entry would have been sooner at a better price capitalizing on the double bottom/lower low.

Apparently there was some news that dropped the market at 10 to new lows, bottomed at MM and popped back. Because it dropped to new lows (regardless of the reverse signal) I would have been taken out either way. In this case I remained in the first trade because ID was still low and until the big push with reversal had not confirmed strength in either direction yet. TA was falling, albeit slowly from 99 - 95.5%.

Generally I Do like the counter-trend trade but I like to see that there is a bottom and that EOTTA is giving up its strength. In the case of my trade it was at 99% and fell to 95.5% before going back to full strength for the last leg down. Gvalu was also plotting at the time of entry and continued to do so - usually it will stop plotting within a couple of bars (as it did on the 2nd signal). This may be a filter I can implement going forward.

The beautiful part of sim testing is that you can see how things act live as you take the signals and work with potential tweeks that should increase the probability of success when you go live.

Testing: Simulating Start: 01-03-2011

Today was the first day of simulation testing (live in the room with Bill)

Though Price did eventually break and fall - it would have been an hour of excruciating sideways consolidation that neither went for or against me more then 10 ticks. I took my 2 ticks and called it a day.

Testing Simulating Continued 01-04-2012

Today's Trade +14 ticks

Total since Sim Start January 3, 2012: + 16 Ticks

Shelly's 1 Trade A Day Plan Chart Template

Anyone wanting the Shelly's 1 Trade A Day Chart that I am using - it's on the forums

Today's trade was in the Room and the trade netted 14ticks... will post chart pic shortly.

Testing Research Continued 12-27-2011 to 12-30-2011

More of the same this week - which amounts to NOTHING!

So So glad that this was holiday time!

Testing Research Continued 12-21-2011 to 12-23-2011

I knew there was a reason that I take these two weeks off.

There were signals but from the 21st until the 30th on the days market traded... I would not have had one single valid entry signal in the first hour. Does this mean I have to re-evaluate my entry? Probably not... the lack of volume over the holidays probably was the culprit. Either way... I will continue as I have been and view this again in a couple of weeks...

 

Testing Research Continued 12-20-2011

December 20, 2011 Trade:

New Total:

295 - 17 = 277 / or 304 - 17 = 286

or 721 - 9 = 712

 

Testing Research Continued 12-19-2011

December 19, 2011 Trade:

 

Testing Research Continued 12-16-2011

December 16, 2011 Trade:

Testing Research Continued 12-15-2011

December 15, 2011

Testing Research Continued 12-14-2011

Deccember 14, 2011

Testing Research Continued 12-13-2011

December 13, 2011 Trade

Testing Research Continued 12-12-2011

December 12/2011

Today's trade is a perfect example of where my discretion will keep me in vs the exit immediate rule -2. For stat purposes we will use -2 however...

I want to point out in this trade how EOTTA had been cycling to the downside all morning (in the pre-market). Price was dribbling down in a sideways choppy motion and was holding resistance and breaking support down to each MurreyMathLine. By the time my signal fired me into the trade EOTTA and ID had both cycled off the previous low but when price tried to break up it held at the 12000 price point. This resistance was too strong to break. When the entry signal fired we had an RP0 confirm and ID immediately hooked with the price break down keeping you in for the next cycle in strength. There was perfect support with both an old Plot Cycle support made a few days earlier and a MurreyMathLine within 7 ticks of each other so either would have been a decent place to exit.

Testing Research Continued 12-09-2011

I was again testing my automated entry as I want to be sure it is firing correctly before starting my simulation forward testing.

Sadly it fired off 3 trades and only 1 actually met my criteria. I will post each trade as examples but only the second strategy entry met my criteria including the signal with Bid/Ask above or below 1200 and EOTID below 50. The EveryPush also confirmed in neutral.

 

First Strat: fired pre-market and as the DOW30 doesn't start working correctly until market open it did not confirm.

Second Strat: Fired and exited at the MM with EOTID & TA above 90

Third Strat: DOW30 did not meet criteria.

End of Trend some examples...

Over time I get the most questions on EndofTrend and better explanation on how it works.

This most recent request had me decide to copy the information I gathered for our member to share with everyone else.

Attached are the main examples of EOTID (red line) and EOTTA (blue line)

What you want to remember is that the EndOf Trend Indicator is based on the incoming strength of the market at the time of price movement.

If your receive a signal and price moves in the direction then Endof trend cycles up it is confirming that price is moving on strength. If the End of trend stays low in neutral territory and does not confirm strength know that chances are price will hit an area of support or resistance and bounce back to where it had come. If Price moves against your signal and EndofTrend confirms the strength behind the opposing direction - chances are you will be stopped or chopped out. Watch for divergence on double tops and bottoms where EndofTrend is showing less strength into the second price hit. This usually means an area of support or resistance has been hit and signals in the opposite direction have a higher probability of success. This indicator can keep you out of low probability setups as well as get you out of probable failures.

If you have specific examples that you want me to go over for you post them on our forums under Shelly's 1 Trade a day Plan

End of Trend is a mainstay to my trading plan on taking profits and money management. Having good examples of what it is doing with price will help us all to improve our profit margin.

Testing Research Continued 12-08-2011

Testing Research Continued 12-07-2011

Today I was testing my Auto-entry Strategy. It wasn't working correctly so I missed on the 1 trade that met my criteria. This trade was an Exit Immediate Trade for -2.

 

Statistics to Date 10-25-2011 to 12-07-2011

10-25-2011 / Win / Short / Max 5 tick required / 6 - 47 tick potential

10-26-2011 / Win / Short / Max 15 tick required / 14 - 53 tick potential

10-27-2011 / Loss / Long / Max 17 tick required / Exit Immediate Rule (cost -2) / -2 to -17 cost / Rule saved a 15 tick loss

10-28-2011 / Win / Long / Max 7 tick required / 10-20 tick potential

*************************************************

10-31-2011 / Loss / Long / Max 12 tick required / out at max / -2 to -12 cost

11-01-2011 / Loss / Short / Max 20 tick required / Exit Immediate Rule (cost -2) / -2 to -20 cost / Rule saved 18 tick loss

11-02-2011 / Loss / Long  / Max 30 tick required / Exit Immediate Rule (cost -2) / -2 to 30 cost / Rule saved 28 tick loss

* at the orriginal time of looking at it I though immediate scalp - but looking back over it the fact that EOTTA was coming off the strength it actually fell under my Exit Immediate Rule and therefore a scalp Win is now -2 Loss.

11-03-2011 / Win / Short / Max 11 ticks required / 25 to 103 tick potential

11-04-2011 / Loss / Short / Max 18 ticks required / Exit Immediate Rule (cost-2) / -2 to -18 cost / this one saved a 16tick loss

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11-07-2011 / Win / Short / Max 12 ticks required / 18 to 57 tick potential

11-08-2011 / BE+1 / Long / Max 23 ticks required / 4 to 20 tick potential

11-09-2011 / Win / Short / Max 18 ticks required / 15 to 39 tick potential

11-10-2011 / Win / Short / Max 30 ticks required / 20 to 34 tick potential

11-11-2011 / Loss / Long / Max 14 ticks required / Exit Immediate Rule (cost-2) / 22 to 42 potential - This was a valid Hijack to new highs and the rule cost us this time.

**************************************************

11-14-2011 / Loss / Short / Max 17 ticks required / Exit Immediate Rule (cost -2) / -2 to -17 cost / this one saved 15 tick cost

11-15-2011 / Win / Short / Max 2 ticks required / 8 to 27 tick potential

11-16-2011 / Win / Long / Max 15 ticks required / 13 to 32 tick potential

11-17-2011 / Win / Long / Max 20 ticks required / 9 to 27 tick potential

11-18-2011 / Win / Long / Max 15 ticks required / 7 to 27 tick potential

***************************************************

11-21-2011 / Win / Short / Max 3 ticks required / 12 to 31 tick potential

11-22-2011 / Win / Long / Max 12 ticks required / 5 to 26 tick potential

11-23-2011 / Loss / Short / Max 7 ticks required / Exit Immediate Rule (cost -2) / 8 to 47 potential - Rule cost 19 ticks with first EOTID

11-25-2011 / Loss / Short / Max 17 ticks required / - 17 cost

****************************************************

11-28-2011 / Loss / Long / Max 30 ticks required / Exit Immediate Rule (cost -2) / 12 to 45 potential - Rule cost 12 ticks w/first EOTID

11-29-2011 / Win / Long / Max 19 ticks required / 12 to 27 potential

11-30-2011 / BE +1 / Short / Max 30 ticks required / First counter - chop (BE+1) / 1 to 4 potential as trend too strong (worst case -10 on EOTID failure)

12-01-2011 / Loss / Short / Max 20 ticks required / Exit Immediate Rule (cost - 2) / 2 to 6 potential - Rule cost 4 ticks w/EOTID confirm

12-02-2011 / Win / Long / Max 10 ticks required / 6 to 18 potential

****************************************************

12-05-2011 / Win / Short / Max 2 ticks required / 8 to 17 potential

12-06-2011 / Win / Short / Max 6 ticks required / 6 to 26 potential

12-07-2011 / Loss / Short / Max 15 ticks required / Exit Immediate Rule (cost - 2) / -2 to -15 / Rule saved 13 ticks

*****************************************************

31 Trades / 17 Wins, 2BE + 1, 12 Losses / Max Average required 16 ticks (472 % 31) - 30 ticks allows for current market volatility / Exit Immediate Rule (-2 cost x 10 trades) saved in losses 105 ticks and cost in potential 34 - 185 ticks (109.5 average ticks) - which means that if you take the scenario that you will be hit at full for all the trades that would have gone against you and take the least potential that you would earn on the trades that succeeded the rule stands to save you more then you could make up on the trend days.To be re-evaluated in forward testing.

Total Wins Potential 252 - 771 ticks on 17 winners + 2 BE + 1

After stops (-64 ticks)

Minimum account 188 ticks (@ $5 = $940) - 31 (x $5 = $155) roundtrip commissions

Maximum potential of 707 ticks (@ $5 = $3535) - 31 (x $5 = $155) roundtrip commissions

Average potential of 447 ticks (@ $5 =$2235) - 31 (x $5 = $155) roundtrip commissions

 

 

 

 

 

Testing Research Continued

12-06-2011 Trade - Part 1:

12-06-2011 - Part 2:

Back Testing Research Continued...

12-05-2011 Trade:

A perfect example of price trading in a range - coiling - trying to break - only to fall back into consolidation:

 

 

Back Testing Research Continued...

11-28-2011 Trade:

11-29-2011 Trade:

11-30-2011 Trade:

12-01-2011 Trade:

12-02-2011 Trade:

Back Testing Research Continued...

11-21-2011 Trade:

11-22-2011 Trade:

11-23-2011 Trade:

11-24-2011 THANKSGIVING - No Trade:

11-25-2011 Trade:

Back Testing Research Continued...

11-14-2011 Trade:

11-15-2011 Trade:

11-16-2011 Trade:

11-17-2011 Trade:

11-18-2011 Trade:

Back Testing Research Continued...

11-07-2011 Trade:

11-08-2011 Trade:

11-09-2011 Trade:

11-10-2011 Trade:

11-11-2011 Trade:

Back Testing Research Continued...

10-31-2011 Trade:

11-01-2011 Trade:

11-02-2011 Trade:

11-03-2011 Trade:

11-04-2011 Trade:

Somehow Missed 10-25-2011 First Trade in research

I actually had 10-25-2011 as the first trade in research...

 

Back Testing Research 10-26-11 on...

Trade 1: 10-26-2011

10-27-2011:

10-28-2011:

First two charts show the severe chop:

Here is the trade that executed:

Discretionary Exit - Shelly's 1 Trade a Day Plan

My exit for the most part will be based on the MurrayMathLines and the Plot Cycles Support and resistant areas.

I will use EOTID and TA with Gvalu as my mainstay discretionary indicator to assist in exiting the trade. As I go forward and share my trades I believe an understanding will develop to exactly how I interpret this valued tool.

I will have 1 Rule based on my backtesting results and will re evaluate this during my forward simulation testing. For testing purposes I will execute on this rule without added discretion.

RULE:

If I am entered into a trade when EOTTA is high in the direction of the trend (Hi-Jack in Trend), I will exit the trade immediately. For statistics I used a 2tick loss on all trades:

Discretionary Target - Shelly's 1 Trade a Day Plan

As I want to have a high probability win to loss ratio due to the fact that this is only 1 trade a day.

Win or lose, it is only 1 trade a day. After the trade has executed I shut her down.

My Entry Signal is simple and will  be automated.

My Hard Stop, though it may change for less with forward testing confirm, is simple and will be executed within the order.

My Target plan will encompass a simple discretion that can be learned step by step as you are comfortable with the indicators and how they interpret price.

 

As you can see in the example above, the MurrayMathLines had a tight support and resistance because of the previous chop consolidation. As EOTID raised confirming strength into the move just watch how price continued to the next Murray Math. As you understand this you will be able to go from taking the first S&R regardless of what is being expressed in the tools to gradually capturing more and more of the trending market.

 

 

Maximum Stop for Shelly's 1 Trade a Day Plan

Though my current research shows an average Hard Stop Requirement of 16 ticks is risk enough I am still starting with a Hard Stop of 30 Ticks / or the Plot Cycle whichever is less.

This is a maximum risk of $150.00 per trade and I am doing this to ensure that statistics are broadened over more time. I will re-address this stop after my 30 days of simulation to confirm.

In the above example:

Entry was 11875 short

Hard Stop was placed at 11905 (maximum 30 ticks) was less

then the Plot Cycle 11909

Actual stop required: 11894 (19 ticks)

Entry Rules - Shelly's 1 Trade a Day Plan

Entry Rules:

EOTPROEveryPush Paint Bar is color Confirmed / and or neutral

betaServerEOTBidAskVolumeDow30 confirms at + or - 1200 in direction of signal

serverEOTNCEP2.5 5 SummersBars or serverEOTNCEP3.1 (TrendOnly/ReversalOnly)

serverEOTEndofTrend ID Below 50

 

 

To be Determined in forward testing during simulated trading and may be added if there is a higher probability of profit:

Does it matter if Bar Close is in direction of signal
How far does price pop and drop to make a difference in outcome.

 

 

Selected Indicator Analysis for 1 Trade a Day Plan - Part 3

Entry Signals:

serverEOTNCEP3.1Room - set to trend only

serverEOTNCEP3.1Room - set to reversal only

serverEOTNCEP2.5Room 5 SummersBars:

Selected Indicator Analysis for 1 Trade a Day Plan - Part 2

Fourth Indicator:

Plot Cycles

Fifth:

EOTEveryPush

Sixth:

BetaserverEOTBidAskVolumeDow 30

set to 0 / +1200 / -1200

Selected Indicator Analysis for 1 Trade a Day Plan

First Indicator:
EOTMurrayMathLines

Second:

ServerEOTEndofTrend

Third:

Gvalu

Shelly's 1 Trade A Day Plan

I decided to create a 1 Trade A Day Plan to show our members that you can create a trading plan with minimal exposure to the Market and still be able to make money consistently over time.

The key to this of course is your Plan. One will have to execute with discipline and consistency to the rules established in your trading Plan.

I will be having my entry automated and this will reduce the stress of entering the trade. I will then have simple and easy to follow exit rules and most importantly good solid money management.

The First Step in my Plan (following our EOTPRO Trading Plan Template) was to choose my market:

I chose YM due to its potential for volatility and movement, but has a smaller risk factor at $5.00 per tick.

I selected the 1 minute chart, however, I have also implemented Summer's Bars into one of my potential entry signals firing on the 1 minute chart.

Following I will show you step by step my chart setup until my selected indicator analysis is set and ready.

 

product training webinar July 20

Download 2011-07-20 15.59 EOTPRO CLIENT ACCESS TRADING ROOM

Half Cycle

Risk profile zero paint bars

RT Channel

Bar timer

Chop Indicator

G Cycle Stochastics

G cycle Mas Ind

Murray Math lines

settings I use for all markets for the manged strategy on Ncep2.5

EOTPRO Ncep2.5 managed strategy settings description

Risk profile zero review with Shelly May 22

Volume splitter 3 volume trend and footprint