May 29, 2012
May 24, 2012
The Power of Multiple Market Signals...
I am always looking for high probability signals and one signal I have always found power behind is when an entry signal fires off on multiple markets around the same time.
Today both CL and GC fired short just after 1PM EST... well just before I was done in the room I called out short short short because ES, NQ, TF, and YM all fired short after both CL and GC broke lower from their signals and here is the outcome... a great opportunity no matter which market you chose.
May 23, 2012
May 22, 2012
ES NCEP2.5 RP0 Confirm May 21st
Though RP0 is far and few between - they certainly can be powerful.
NCEP3.1 COP signalled too late in the AM to qualify and early in the PM to qualify.
May 21, 2012
Shelly's 1 Trade A Day Plan - Getting Started Again w/COP
So as I have been going through Trading Classes at the lunch hour I have also going step by step creating my plan and this is what I am thinking of doing...
They always say KISS - so in I am! I have selected the Entry Method YM NCEP3.1 COP
and as everyone knows I truly wanted to put together a 1 Trade a Day Plan and so I am basing my research on this.
So far it is panning out quite nicely but I still have another 90 trade setups to view and calculate before I will complete my most optimum stop & target tool(s) as well as start time.
So far it seems that MAX stop is 15 ticks... as for target it is too soon in research to know but I have a feeling Alla's Average and EOT will come into play for me.
I am checking start times ranging from 1 hour pre-market to Open and I am thinking of checking the hour after Open just in case I can work in a more favorable Pacific Time!
Some More Examples:
May 18, 2012
May 17, 2012
May 15, 2012
Trading Plan (in Process) CHART Examples Part 2...
6) CHARTS:
Thank you - awesome visuals and I appreciate you explaining on the chart so I can visualize it with you. Your plan looks good to me - let me know how forward testing in sim goes. If you need any help along the way or if you just need a second look at trades to add my ideas let me know.
Trading Plan (in Process) CHART Examples...
I want you to look in detail at these charts. This is how your chart examples should look while simming and recording all you can on the trades you take during your forward testing. This is what will help you fine tune your trading plan based on the nuances you recognize happening in the market over and over again with high probability.
Trading Plan (in Process) Continued...
4) Trade Management:
You should note that the EOTID hook and SECS changing color usually happen together becaus EOTID info is in this aspect of SECS. Be sure you confirm that 12 tick stop on CL (at least eyeball it to be sure to sim forward) is not too tight due to this markets volatility.
What does tighten stop mean at the tag of ID & TA - how close? A set number of ticks or do you use support and resistance etc...? I mention this because in strong beginnings of trends ID will cycle with small pullbacks into the next pop. I agree that taking the trade off instead of playing in chop is a smart idea. Lock in your profits as soon as you can and that's whether you have a set target or you wait until the tools meet the criteria when it happens lock it in.
5) Higher time frames:
This is where you have to remember to stay consistent. News is an obvious one (for now) and it is always great to understand that the trend is your friend... avoiding countertrend trades will reduce the risk. Glen has the DOW70 rule whereby if the DJIA is up or down 70points + he will only trade in that direction.
May 13, 2012
Trading Plan (in Process) Continued...
2) Selected Markets:
I am sure you know my stance - you will have to decide for yourself if you wish to follow this as stringently. Just as I always recommend starting with 1 contract - I also always recommend starting with 1 market.
Market Trade Times:
Devoting all day to the markets in the long run may be tiring and or cause overtrading. That being said the first hour pre-market does often have good movement so I encourage you confirming that the signals at this time are generally good. Will you stop once you reach your 2 point target? What is your plan where this is concerned?
3) NCEP2.5 and NCEP3.1 Plan:
You have a pre-determined max stop of 12 ticks on both markets - confirm this... CL is generally more volatile so it may or may not be enough - only you will know if this is a good risk reward. You are aiming for 8 ticks or 2 points on ES but your stop is 12 ticks... As for CL is 2 points equal to $2 or 20 ticks? If it is then the risk is less then the potential reward - just not sure if you will get stopped out a lot due to CL's volatility.
The tools confirming the trade are great because they include cycles/trend and volume with price action.
Also remember a true RP0 trade has both EOTID and EOTTA below the 25 line when it triggers.
May 12, 2012
Trading Plan (in Process) Continued
This member has decided to use both NCEP2.5 & NCEP3.1 in his plan...
As you can see he did think his daily goals through however I did add some recommendations...
* 1) Financial goals:
Though your overall goal of 2 points a day average are attainable - I will remind you that you will have losing days. So please create your goals based on attainable results. If your goals are not attainable (even in the slightest) it will cause additional emotions to enter your trading and this is what you don't want.
I always always recommend that the first goal is to be profitable... and to build it from there a little at a time so that they are within reach of where you are and where you want to go. I am glad to see that you are earning your contracts... I would also recommend if you do have a losing day and dip below the earned contract that you remove it until it is re-earned.
Have you also thought of taking out your initial investment when you earn it? So if you start with $5000 account cash it out when you reach $10,000.00 and start over. This means starting again with 1 contract and earning your way back up.
May 09, 2012
Trading Plan (in Process) Example
This is in amazing detail and very thorough. This member took a gander through our different available analysis and spent time in the Main trading room asking questions pertinent to what he wanted to accomplish and how to get there.This member also incorporated his personal preferences so that the trading plan was unique to him.
I am grateful that he was willing to share his work because this is a great example of starting on the right foot, thinking through your goals, how you want to attain them, and then putting it to paper.
I did offer recommendations through out and I will include this information so you can see my perceptions as well. I will share a few pages a day so you can get ideas for setting your own plan in action.
As you can see this member truly put amazing effort into incorporating the information he needed.
You could add to this by incorporating links to our website that add to your plan that would take you to the indicator pages and NCEP movies where you can access answers to any of your questions. A one place stop designed for you.
May 08, 2012
May 07, 2012
May 04, 2012
May 03, 2012
May 01, 2012
April 30, 2012
April 27, 2012
April 20, 2012
April 19, 2012
Another 5 second chart on TF:
Algo 2 - shows activity AFTER the economic news.
This is inspired by NANEX.NET and created by EOTPRO Advanced Trading Technologies
Here is a 5 second chart on TF:
Algo 1 - shows algo activity on the nice uptrend before the news.
Pretty cool stuff! This is inspired by NANEX.NET and created by EOTPRO Advanced Trading Technologies
April 03, 2012
Mentoring and Trading Course with Shelly
This is a perfect example of a chart picture that would tell you a 1000 words filed in your Trading Journal.
I always recommend not only having a day to day Trade Diary but I also expect traders to include detailed visuals of those daily trades taken in that Diary. Not only will you immediately recognize if you followed your plan - over time you may find small idiosyncracies that will help you improve your trading plan.
Here's the update...
I will continue offering 1-on-1 mentoring to those members that secured their spot.
Now I will be not only guiding New Members but any Current Members with a simplified Getting Started solution. My time slot will be Monday - Friday at 12:30PM EST to 1:30 / 2ish and each day will have a unique Lesson that will take you through Choosing your market to Simulating your Trading Plan.
I am currently putting together the Course Outline and it will serve those just wanting a psychological refresher to those that need 6 - 8 weeks putting it all together.
The COP System is going to be integrated into this Course.
Stayed Tuned... I should be starting in the next couple of weeks and updates will be included in Our Members Newsletter sent out on Mondays.
January 09, 2012
Testing Simulating Continued 01-09-2012
01-09-2012 Trade
For statistical purposes I was taken out +1. However I do have my own computer now running with the chart and sim as well.My fill was 12314 (Bill's was 12315)
I have had Bill change his settings so he gets filled at Bar Close Price (he was getting filled at +1)
When ID passed above 90 I had Bill bring up his stop (as did I) to BE+1 - Bill was taken out +1 and I was still in. Price hit 12316 on the pullback before popping to the MurreyMath. I was taken out at 12324 (the MurreyMath) for 10ticks when I followed price up with my stop.
For statistical purposes we will say today's trade took +1 as this was the trade in the trading room.
January 06, 2012
Testing Simulating Continued 01-06-2012
Though I wasn't live in the room today I will post the First Valid signal.
January 6,2012 Trade:
As I noted yesterday in the first countertrend that took me into a reversal and double stop out in bottom trend consolidation EOTTA and Gvalu were both strong. This was the case again this AM, the difference - GVALU stopped plotting within 2 bars of the entry signal today confirming the potential reversal. This alone may be a money management tool I can utilize on these 1st countertrend trades. I will have to continue to make note throughout Sim Testing.
January 05, 2012
Testing Simulating Continued 01-05-2012
Today was a great learning day for my auto-strategy entry trigger.
Not only do I need to implement not getting in if TA is above 95 on a counter trend trade, I also need to add a filter so I am not reversed into the end of a trend.
My rules currently state that if I am entered at the end of a trend with EOTID low (and TA high) - I exit immediately and for record purposes this is -2ticks. Today I was a little flustered during testing because I wasn't expecting to be reversed in to this from my trade so I did not implement this rule and ended with -10 ticks on the second trade after losing 28 ticks on the first before reversal.
In a full discretion setup I would not have jumped in with EOTTA so high (will have to see how I can filter this) as I prefer to see some breakage in this indicator confirming that the trend could be done. I would also not have jumped in short unless Hi-Jacking and with a Hi-Jack entry would have been sooner at a better price capitalizing on the double bottom/lower low.
Apparently there was some news that dropped the market at 10 to new lows, bottomed at MM and popped back. Because it dropped to new lows (regardless of the reverse signal) I would have been taken out either way. In this case I remained in the first trade because ID was still low and until the big push with reversal had not confirmed strength in either direction yet. TA was falling, albeit slowly from 99 - 95.5%.
Generally I Do like the counter-trend trade but I like to see that there is a bottom and that EOTTA is giving up its strength. In the case of my trade it was at 99% and fell to 95.5% before going back to full strength for the last leg down. Gvalu was also plotting at the time of entry and continued to do so - usually it will stop plotting within a couple of bars (as it did on the 2nd signal). This may be a filter I can implement going forward.
The beautiful part of sim testing is that you can see how things act live as you take the signals and work with potential tweeks that should increase the probability of success when you go live.
January 04, 2012
Testing: Simulating Start: 01-03-2011
Today was the first day of simulation testing (live in the room with Bill)
Though Price did eventually break and fall - it would have been an hour of excruciating sideways consolidation that neither went for or against me more then 10 ticks. I took my 2 ticks and called it a day.
Testing Simulating Continued 01-04-2012
Today's Trade +14 ticks
Total since Sim Start January 3, 2012: + 16 Ticks
January 02, 2012
Testing Research Continued 12-27-2011 to 12-30-2011
More of the same this week - which amounts to NOTHING!
So So glad that this was holiday time!
Testing Research Continued 12-21-2011 to 12-23-2011
I knew there was a reason that I take these two weeks off.
There were signals but from the 21st until the 30th on the days market traded... I would not have had one single valid entry signal in the first hour. Does this mean I have to re-evaluate my entry? Probably not... the lack of volume over the holidays probably was the culprit. Either way... I will continue as I have been and view this again in a couple of weeks...
December 21, 2011
Testing Research Continued 12-20-2011
December 20, 2011 Trade:
New Total:
295 - 17 = 277 / or 304 - 17 = 286
or 721 - 9 = 712
Testing Research Continued 12-19-2011
December 19, 2011 Trade:
December 20, 2011
Testing Research Continued 12-16-2011
December 16, 2011 Trade:
Testing Research Continued 12-15-2011
December 15, 2011
Testing Research Continued 12-14-2011
Deccember 14, 2011
December 19, 2011
Testing Research Continued 12-13-2011
December 13, 2011 Trade
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